#ES_F / #NQ_F Trade Plan July 16
Mastering the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 futures with Barky's Three Level Trade Plans
Daily Chart Update
Yesterday’s plan called for an hourly dip while recognising the uptrend, stating that if price continued directly from the overnight higher lows, the first hourly EMA9 consolidation after making the higher high, would set up continuation or reversal. We got long that continuation into the European session, then shorted the fake break out at US open and played the bounce for the higher low that initiated the proposed hourly consolidation that set up exactly where proposed, then broke down late day to hit my final downside target, the lower hourly base boundary and key support.
Plan result: 86 points $ES_F and 326 points $NQ_F. These trades are recapped in today’s educational section.
I wrote yesterday that price was coming from ‘inside breakdowns’ and labelled the break out attempts as ‘looks above’. Today price is backtesting these break outs with ES already confirming the break out failed. NQ is still resting on its D1 EMA9 and while both indices should/could retrace some or all of yesterday’s rejection wick, we have to anticipate a broader turns as we head into July OpEx.
Revised levels, trade plans, trade recaps, charts, key levels, and trade plan video with video trade reviews, all in today’s newsletter.
Table of Contents
This Week’s Plan and the Coming Session;
Plan - New Three Level Trade Plans for $ES_F and $NQ_F;
$VIX - Implied Volatility (Bonus);
Video - Trade Plan Video with Previous Session Trade Recaps;
Recap Charts - Previous Session Setup Charts and Education.
For methodology, follow this link: Barky’s Three Level Trade Plans
Three Diagonals Will Change Your Life
This Week’s Plan
Plan for the this week as published on July 13: This week's plan centres on an "outside week," but whether the market moves up or down remains uncertain. The daily EMA9 contractions are the critical factors to watch. Expect sellers to attempt a pullback as RSI divergence confirmed exhaustion. Pull backs are never guaranteed, and would initially be dips to buy, with monthly OpEx the coming week’s main event. These are daily EMA9 consolidations in strong uptrends, and they rarely fade without taking out the high at least one more time.
Key Trigger: Losing D1 EMA9 sparks pullbacks towards demand.
Pullback Targets: D1 EMA14 aligns weekly Trend Control Diagonals and the projected demand zones.
Break out supports: ES $6153 - NQ $22426
Key weekly supports: ES $5959 - NQ $21567
Plans for the Coming Session
Convergence or pullback stage initiated.
Price is at the projected key support levels. Buyers have defend here to initiate retraces of part or all of yesterday’s rejection wicks. Sellers take full control if price breaks lower. For both indices, D1 EMA21 would be the first downside targets, aligning perfectly with hourly demand zones (in green), from where we should look for for longs to backtest D1 EMA9 above. The latter alternative would test last week’s low, activating the final option of the plan for this week.
COMPLETE: Bullish Setup: Long to attempt immediate continuation.
COMPLETE: Bearish Setup: Short to backtest D1 EMA14 for daily higher lows.
Bullish Reversal Triggers:
- failing to break and hold below last week’s lows signals failed breakdowns;
- COMPLETE: failing to break and hold below Friday’s lows signals failed breakdowns.
Barky’s Three Level Trade Plans provide precise entries to navigate these setups.
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