Are Markets Breaking Higher?
Daily false breakouts on weekly turning clouds. Actual daily higher lows are needed to confirm the uptrend. My focus remains on buying dips while avoiding breakouts. Defensive, but never bearish.
Barkworthy Notes — Monday, August 17, 2026
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#ES_F / #NQ_F - $SPX / $NDX #FUTURES - $SPY / $QQQ
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Weekly Market Update and Plan
$NQ_F is still in a base. Price has tested the monthly EMA9 — aligns with the weekly EMA50 to signify weakness, and is currently attempting to confirm a weekly lower high before a weekly higher low can test and initiate a new weekly uptrend.
The recent volatility has been destructive for some, but all I have done this year is follow my system to buy dips, and the win rate has been incredible.
My plan remains to focus on buying dips as long as price is above the daily EMA9, and I will look to swing a weekly higher low as illustrated.
I am defensive into these highs. Not bearish, but locking in.
$ES_F swept the previous week high and closed on indecision. A weekly higher low is needed to confirm the new uptrend. The volume into this sweep was relatively low, and we should expect a top to confirm into the coming week, initiating the search for a weekly higher low.
This is bullish. Markets shift bearish when the weekly EMA9 fails to support price.
On a personal note, looking at leaders, $NVDA has hit weekly resistance and printed a weekly reversal candle while many bought the current high. $AMD strong daily squeeze back into resistance on a neutral trend. $MU was another beautiful trade for the group, but hit target perfectly and should exhaust before testing the weekly EMA9 to confirm buyers are in control. $STX long $862.68 was the best trade I gave last week, and like the others, hit resistance here.
Without exception, last week saw 20-day breakouts. Linda Bradford Raschke and Larry Connors invented Turtle Soup. They published it in their 1996 book Street Smarts as a fade of failed 20-day breakouts from the original Turtle Trading system of the 1980s.
$AVGO was the trade from two weeks ago, and that chart illustrates that pattern perfectly. Buyers have a job to do this week. Be careful when buying late stage breakouts.
Have a great Sunday!
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Setup Review & Education
Friday’s trade plan proposed a dip through Level #2 to buy, with Level #3 line in the sand (breakout fails below). The formation worked and my model set up and triggered at 11:50 AM for 96 points to close another perfect week.
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Trade Plans
Market updates look at weekly and daily trend structure to create trade plans for every session. The methodology is focussed on buying lower timeframe failed breakdowns into higher timeframe context.
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$NQ_F — Trade Plan
The breakout fails when the key zone is lost. The 4 hourly uptrend has ended and price is initiating the daily higher low. I would expect a gap down on Sunday, and that would be the dip to buy. A gap up into supply is in play as well, but we need rejection to initiate the daily higher low. I would be very careful with longs now — nothing says bearish yet, but as soon as a daily higher low forms now, sellers will have their level below which they take full control.
I’ll be looking for my LTF DEM into the proposed key zones.
Remember: price made a new high, so the first higher low is a buy.
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$ES_F — Trade Plan
The exact same setup as NQ, except the new high was rejected. Still, the first higher low into the daily EMA9 is a buy. That higher low — if given — will be key. Right now, last week’s low is key support. I will continue to focus on buying dips into the proposed key zones.
Losing Level #2 triggers short towards last week’s reversal zone. That is the main area for new longs. Below Level #3, sellers take full control.
Failed breakdowns of Level #2 and Level #3 are actionable, and target last week’s high.
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VIX Confirmation Levels
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Daily Video Snap
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*** This edition was drafted without AI assistance. Nothing here is financial advice. Trading futures carries substantial risk; these are my own plans and educational notes, not a recommendation to trade. Read our full disclaimed, EULA, terms of service, etc. via https://thebarkworthynotes.com ***
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